A monitored quantity starts at \(500\). For the first \(4\) days it grows by \(10\%\) per day. At exactly day \(4\), an intervention instantly reduces the current value by \(20\%\). From day \(4\) until day \(10\), the reduced quantity decreases by \(5\%\) per day. At day \(10\), the rate changes again with no jump, and the quantity then grows by \(3\%\) per day.
a) Write a three-branch piecewise exponential model \(Q(t)\) for \(t\ge0\).
b) State whether the model is continuous at \(t=4\) and at \(t=10\), and justify each answer from the branch values.
c) Find \(Q(12)\). Round to the nearest tenth.
Hints
- Treat each change time as a new elapsed-time origin for the factor that begins there.
- At day \(4\), distinguish the value just before the intervention from the value immediately after it.
- At day \(10\), use the value already reached by the second branch as the starting value of the third branch.
- Continuity depends on whether the branch values agree at the breakpoint, not merely on whether both branches are exponential.
Solution
1. Before the first breakpoint, \(Q(t)=500(1.10)^t\) for \(0\le t<4\).
2. Just before day \(4\), the value is \(500(1.10)^4\). The intervention leaves \(80\%\) of that value, so the second branch begins at \(0.8\cdot500(1.10)^4\).
3. Therefore, \(Q(t)=0.8\cdot500(1.10)^4(0.95)^{t-4}\) for \(4\le t<10\).
4. At day \(10\), there is no jump. The second branch reaches \(0.8\cdot500(1.10)^4(0.95)^6\), so the third branch is \(Q(t)=0.8\cdot500(1.10)^4(0.95)^6(1.03)^{t-10}\) for \(t\ge10\).
5. At \(t=4\), the left-hand branch approaches \(500(1.10)^4\), while the actual branch value is \(80\%\) of that amount. The model is discontinuous there.
6. At \(t=10\), the second-branch value and third-branch starting value are identical, so the model is continuous there.
7. \(Q(12)=0.8\cdot500(1.10)^4(0.95)^6(1.03)^2\approx456.7\).
Answer
a) \(Q(t)=500(1.10)^t\) for \(0\le t<4\); \(Q(t)=0.8\cdot500(1.10)^4(0.95)^{t-4}\) for \(4\le t<10\); \(Q(t)=0.8\cdot500(1.10)^4(0.95)^6(1.03)^{t-10}\) for \(t\ge10\)
b) Discontinuous at \(t=4\) because of the instantaneous \(20\%\) drop; continuous at \(t=10\) because the third branch starts from the second branch's day-10 value.
c) \(Q(12)\approx456.7\)