Two programs report success separately for beginners and experienced participants.
Beginners:
<table><tr><th></th><th>Success</th><th>Not successful</th><th>Total</th></tr><tr><th>Program A</th><td>\(9\)</td><td>\(1\)</td><td>\(10\)</td></tr><tr><th>Program B</th><td>\(40\)</td><td>\(10\)</td><td>\(50\)</td></tr></table>
Experienced participants:
<table><tr><th></th><th>Success</th><th>Not successful</th><th>Total</th></tr><tr><th>Program A</th><td>\(24\)</td><td>\(36\)</td><td>\(60\)</td></tr><tr><th>Program B</th><td>\(6\)</td><td>\(14\)</td><td>\(20\)</td></tr></table>
a) Which program has the higher success rate within each experience level?
b) Combine the two levels. Which program has the higher overall success rate?
c) Explain how the overall comparison can reverse.
Hints
- Compute success rates separately within the beginner and experienced tables.
- Add each program's successes and totals across the two tables for the overall rates.
- Compare how each program's participants are distributed between the higher- and lower-success subgroups.
Solution
1. Among beginners, Program A's success rate is \(\frac{9}{10}=90\%\).
2. Among beginners, Program B's success rate is \(\frac{40}{50}=80\%\), so Program A is higher.
3. Among experienced participants, Program A's success rate is \(\frac{24}{60}=40\%\).
4. Among experienced participants, Program B's success rate is \(\frac{6}{20}=30\%\), so Program A is again higher.
5. Overall, Program A has \(9+24=33\) successes among \(10+60=70\) participants, so its rate is \(\frac{33}{70}\approx47.1\%\).
6. Overall, Program B has \(40+6=46\) successes among \(50+20=70\) participants, so its rate is \(\frac{46}{70}\approx65.7\%\).
7. Program B has many more beginners, the subgroup with higher success rates in both programs. The different subgroup mixes reverse the overall comparison.
Answer
a) Program A in both experience levels: \(90\%\) versus \(80\%\) for beginners, and \(40\%\) versus \(30\%\) for experienced participants.
b) Program B overall: about \(65.7\%\) versus about \(47.1\%\) for Program A.
c) Program B contains a much larger proportion of beginners, the higher-success subgroup, so combining the differently mixed groups reverses the comparison.