Three fair six-sided dice are rolled, and \(X\) is the sum of the results. A player claims that \(P(X=9)\) and \(P(X=10)\) must be equal because each sum can be written in exactly \(6\) ways as an unordered sum of three integers from \(1\) through \(6\).
1. Check the player's count by listing all unordered triples for sums \(9\) and \(10\). Write each triple in nondecreasing order.
2. Find \(P(X=9)\) and \(P(X=10)\) using the \(6^3\) equally likely ordered outcomes.
3. Explain why the number of unordered triples alone does not determine the probability of each sum.
Hints
- Determine how many arrangements a triple such as \((1,2,6)\) has.
- Compare triples with three distinct entries, two equal entries, and three equal entries.
- The equally likely elementary outcomes identify the result on each of the three distinguishable dice.
Solution
1. For sum \(9\), the unordered triples are \((1,2,6)\), \((1,3,5)\), \((1,4,4)\), \((2,2,5)\), \((2,3,4)\), and \((3,3,3)\). For sum \(10\), they are \((1,3,6)\), \((1,4,5)\), \((2,2,6)\), \((2,3,5)\), \((2,4,4)\), and \((3,3,4)\). Each sum has \(6\) unordered triples.
2. There are \(216\) equally likely ordered outcomes. For sum \(9\), the multiplicities give \(3\cdot6+2\cdot3+1=25\) outcomes, so \(P(X=9)=\frac{25}{216}\approx0.1157\). For sum \(10\), the multiplicities give \(3\cdot6+3\cdot3=27\) outcomes, so \(P(X=10)=\frac{27}{216}=0.125\).
3. Unordered triples are not equally likely: a triple with three distinct entries represents \(6\) ordered outcomes, one with two equal entries represents \(3\), and one with three equal entries represents \(1\). Thus the unordered count alone ignores different arrangement multiplicities.
Answer
1. Each sum has \(6\) unordered triples.
2. \(P(X=9)=\frac{25}{216}\approx0.1157\) and \(P(X=10)=\frac{27}{216}=0.125\)
3. The unordered triples represent different numbers of equally likely ordered outcomes, depending on whether entries repeat.