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Transition matrices

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55186212
A two-state process uses the row-stochastic transition matrix \(T=\begin{pmatrix}0.80&0.20\\0.35&0.65\end{pmatrix}\). Rows represent the current state \(A,B\), and columns represent the next state \(A,B\). If the process is currently in state \(B\), what is the probability that it moves to state \(A\) next?

Hints

- First identify which dimension of the matrix represents the current state. - Use the row for the current state \(B\). - Then use the column for the next state \(A\).

Solution

Use the entry in row \(B\), column \(A\). That entry is \(0.35\).

Answer

\(0.35\)
55186312
Determine whether \(P=\begin{pmatrix}0.60&0.40\\0.25&0.75\end{pmatrix}\) is a row-stochastic transition matrix.

Hints

- Recall the two requirements for a row-stochastic matrix. - Check the sign of every entry. - Check each row sum separately.

Solution

Every entry is nonnegative. The first row sums to \(0.60+0.40=1\), and the second row sums to \(0.25+0.75=1\). Therefore, \(P\) is row-stochastic.

Answer

Yes. \(P\) is row-stochastic.
53071312
A dynamic system has states \(S_1, S_2, S_3, S_4\). The entry \(m_{ij}\) of its transition matrix \(M\) is the proportion moving from state \(S_j\) to state \(S_i\). Construct the \(4\times4\) matrix using these entries: \(m_{11}=0.75\), \(m_{21}=0.15\), \(m_{41}=0.10\) \(m_{12}=0.20\), \(m_{22}=0.80\) \(m_{33}=0.60\), \(m_{43}=0.40\) \(m_{14}=0.05\), \(m_{34}=0.05\), \(m_{44}=0.90\) All entries not listed are \(0\).

Hints

- Use the first index for the row and the second index for the column. - Fill unspecified entries with zero. - Check each column sum after constructing the matrix.

Solution

1. There are four states, so \(M\) has four rows and four columns. 2. The first index determines the row, and the second determines the column. 3. Place the given entries in their indexed positions and fill the remaining positions with zeros: \(M=\begin{pmatrix}0.75&0.20&0&0.05\\0.15&0.80&0&0\\0&0&0.60&0.05\\0.10&0&0.40&0.90\end{pmatrix}\). 4. Each column sums to \(1\), which is consistent with the stated transition convention.

Answer

\(M=\begin{pmatrix}0.75&0.20&0&0.05\\0.15&0.80&0&0\\0&0&0.60&0.05\\0.10&0&0.40&0.90\end{pmatrix}\)
55186412
The matrix \(T=\begin{pmatrix}0.50&0.30&0.20\\0.10&0.60&0.30\\0.25&x&0.50\end{pmatrix}\) is row-stochastic. Find \(x\).

Hints

- Use the defining row-sum property of a row-stochastic matrix. - Only one row contains the unknown entry. - Set that row's total equal to \(1\).

Solution

The entries in the third row must sum to \(1\): \(0.25+x+0.50=1\). Therefore, \(x=0.25\).

Answer

\(x=0.25\)
55186512
A service has \(60\) customers in plan \(A\) and \(40\) customers in plan \(B\). Its monthly row-stochastic transition matrix is \(T=\begin{pmatrix}0.70&0.30\\0.20&0.80\end{pmatrix}\), where rows give the current plan and columns give the next plan. Find the customer distribution after one month.

Hints

- Match the state-vector orientation to the row-stochastic convention. - Each next-state total combines contributions from both current states. - Check that the total number of customers is preserved.

Solution

Use the current row vector \(\begin{pmatrix}60&40\end{pmatrix}\): \(\begin{pmatrix}60&40\end{pmatrix}T =\begin{pmatrix}60\cdot0.70+40\cdot0.20&60\cdot0.30+40\cdot0.80\end{pmatrix} =\begin{pmatrix}50&50\end{pmatrix}\).

Answer

\(50\) customers in plan \(A\) and \(50\) customers in plan \(B\)
55186712
A customer can be in one of three states each month: Online \(O\), Store \(S\), or Inactive \(I\). Use rows for the current state and columns for the next state, in the order \(O,S,I\). - From \(O\): \(70\%\) stay in \(O\), \(20\%\) move to \(S\), and \(10\%\) move to \(I\). - From \(S\): \(15\%\) move to \(O\), \(75\%\) stay in \(S\), and \(10\%\) move to \(I\). - From \(I\): \(30\%\) move to \(O\), none move directly to \(S\), and \(70\%\) stay in \(I\). Construct the row-stochastic transition matrix.

Hints

- Fix the stated state order before placing any probabilities. - Build one row at a time from the transitions out of that current state. - Check each completed row against the row-stochastic condition.

Solution

Each row records the probabilities from one current state to the three next states. Therefore, \(T=\begin{pmatrix}0.70&0.20&0.10\\0.15&0.75&0.10\\0.30&0&0.70\end{pmatrix}\). Each row sums to \(1\), as required.

Answer

\(\begin{pmatrix}0.70&0.20&0.10\\0.15&0.75&0.10\\0.30&0&0.70\end{pmatrix}\)
53071912
Three competing car-sharing companies, \(A\), \(B\), and \(C\), share a city market. The entry \(m_{ij}\) gives the proportion of customers who move from company \(j\) to company \(i\), including customers who stay with the same company. The weekly transition matrix is \(M=\begin{pmatrix}0.8&0.1&0.05\\0.1&0.7&0.15\\0.1&0.2&0.8\end{pmatrix}\). At week \(0\), the \(20{,}000\) customers are distributed as follows: \(10{,}000\) with \(A\), \(6000\) with \(B\), and \(4000\) with \(C\). 1) Find the customer distribution after one week. 2) Find the customer distribution after two weeks.

Hints

- Write the current customer counts as a column state vector. - Multiply the transition matrix by the current state vector. - Use the week-1 result as the input for week 2. - Check that the total number of customers remains constant.

Solution

1. The initial state vector is \(\mathbf{v}_0=\begin{pmatrix}10{,}000\\6000\\4000\end{pmatrix}\). After one week, \(\mathbf{v}_1=M\mathbf{v}_0\) \(=\begin{pmatrix}0.8\cdot10{,}000+0.1\cdot6000+0.05\cdot4000\\0.1\cdot10{,}000+0.7\cdot6000+0.15\cdot4000\\0.1\cdot10{,}000+0.2\cdot6000+0.8\cdot4000\end{pmatrix}\) \(=\begin{pmatrix}8800\\5800\\5400\end{pmatrix}\). 2. Apply the transition matrix again: \(\mathbf{v}_2=M\mathbf{v}_1\) \(=\begin{pmatrix}0.8\cdot8800+0.1\cdot5800+0.05\cdot5400\\0.1\cdot8800+0.7\cdot5800+0.15\cdot5400\\0.1\cdot8800+0.2\cdot5800+0.8\cdot5400\end{pmatrix}\) \(=\begin{pmatrix}7890\\5750\\6360\end{pmatrix}\).

Answer

1) After one week: \(A: 8800\), \(B: 5800\), \(C: 5400\). 2) After two weeks: \(A: 7890\), \(B: 5750\), \(C: 6360\).
54733512
A two-state weather model has states sunny \(S\) and rainy \(R\), with transition matrix \(T=\begin{pmatrix}0.70&0.30\\0.40&0.60\end{pmatrix}\), where rows give today’s state and columns give tomorrow’s state. Given that today is sunny, use \(T^2\) to find the probability that the weather is rainy two days from now.

Hints

- Square the one-step transition matrix to obtain two-step probabilities. - Use the sunny row and rainy column for the requested entry. - The matrix product adds the probabilities of the two possible intermediate-state paths.

Solution

1. The two-step transition matrix is \(T^2\). 2. Its sunny-to-rainy entry is \(0.70\cdot0.30+0.30\cdot0.60=0.21+0.18=0.39\). 3. Therefore the probability of rain two days from now, given sunshine today, is \(0.39\).

Answer

The sunny-to-rainy entry of \(T^2\) is \(0.39\), so the probability is \(0.39\).
55186612
A two-state process has row-stochastic transition matrix \(T=\begin{pmatrix}0.80&0.20\\0.30&0.70\end{pmatrix}\). Find a stationary probability distribution \(\begin{pmatrix}p&q\end{pmatrix}\), where \(p+q=1\), satisfying \(\begin{pmatrix}p&q\end{pmatrix}T=\begin{pmatrix}p&q\end{pmatrix}\).

Hints

- A stationary distribution is unchanged by one transition. - Use the condition that the two probabilities sum to \(1\). - Substitute one probability in terms of the other into one component of the stationary equation.

Solution

From the first component of the stationary equation, \(p=0.80p+0.30q\). Since \(q=1-p\), \(p=0.80p+0.30(1-p)=0.50p+0.30\). Thus, \(0.50p=0.30\), so \(p=0.60\) and \(q=0.40\).

Answer

\(\begin{pmatrix}0.60&0.40\end{pmatrix}\)
53075412
A row-stochastic transition matrix has nonnegative entries and each row sum equals \(1\). Let \(P=\begin{pmatrix}0.6&0.4\\0.2&0.8\end{pmatrix}\). a) Find all matrices \(Q=\begin{pmatrix}x&y\\z&w\end{pmatrix}\) that commute with \(P\), so that \(PQ=QP\). b) Among the matrices from part a, find all matrices \(Q\) that are also row-stochastic transition matrices.

Hints

- Multiply \(P\) and \(Q\) in both orders. - Equate corresponding entries to find relationships among the variables. - For part b), impose the row-sum condition. - Use nonnegativity to restrict the parameter interval.

Solution

1. Compute \(PQ=\begin{pmatrix}0.6x+0.4z&0.6y+0.4w\\0.2x+0.8z&0.2y+0.8w\end{pmatrix}\) and \(QP=\begin{pmatrix}0.6x+0.2y&0.4x+0.8y\\0.6z+0.2w&0.4z+0.8w\end{pmatrix}\). 2. Equating corresponding entries gives \(y=2z\) and \(w=x+z\). The remaining equations produce the same conditions. Thus, \(Q=\begin{pmatrix}x&2z\\z&x+z\end{pmatrix}\), where \(x, z\in\mathbb{R}\). 3. For \(Q\) to be row-stochastic, its first row must satisfy \(x+2z=1\), so \(x=1-2z\). The second row then also sums to \(1\). 4. Nonnegativity requires \(z\ge0\), \(1-2z\ge0\), and \(1-z\ge0\). Therefore, \(0\le z\le0.5\). Hence, \(Q=\begin{pmatrix}1-2z&2z\\z&1-z\end{pmatrix}\), where \(0\le z\le0.5\).

Answer

a) \(Q=\begin{pmatrix}x&2z\\z&x+z\end{pmatrix}\), where \(x, z\in\mathbb{R}\). b) \(Q=\begin{pmatrix}1-2z&2z\\z&1-z\end{pmatrix}\), where \(0\le z\le0.5\).

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