Three competing car-sharing companies, \(A\), \(B\), and \(C\), share a city market. The entry \(m_{ij}\) gives the proportion of customers who move from company \(j\) to company \(i\), including customers who stay with the same company. The weekly transition matrix is
\(M=\begin{pmatrix}0.8&0.1&0.05\\0.1&0.7&0.15\\0.1&0.2&0.8\end{pmatrix}\).
At week \(0\), the \(20{,}000\) customers are distributed as follows: \(10{,}000\) with \(A\), \(6000\) with \(B\), and \(4000\) with \(C\).
1) Find the customer distribution after one week.
2) Find the customer distribution after two weeks.
Hints
- Write the current customer counts as a column state vector.
- Multiply the transition matrix by the current state vector.
- Use the week-1 result as the input for week 2.
- Check that the total number of customers remains constant.
Solution
1. The initial state vector is
\(\mathbf{v}_0=\begin{pmatrix}10{,}000\\6000\\4000\end{pmatrix}\).
After one week,
\(\mathbf{v}_1=M\mathbf{v}_0\)
\(=\begin{pmatrix}0.8\cdot10{,}000+0.1\cdot6000+0.05\cdot4000\\0.1\cdot10{,}000+0.7\cdot6000+0.15\cdot4000\\0.1\cdot10{,}000+0.2\cdot6000+0.8\cdot4000\end{pmatrix}\)
\(=\begin{pmatrix}8800\\5800\\5400\end{pmatrix}\).
2. Apply the transition matrix again:
\(\mathbf{v}_2=M\mathbf{v}_1\)
\(=\begin{pmatrix}0.8\cdot8800+0.1\cdot5800+0.05\cdot5400\\0.1\cdot8800+0.7\cdot5800+0.15\cdot5400\\0.1\cdot8800+0.2\cdot5800+0.8\cdot5400\end{pmatrix}\)
\(=\begin{pmatrix}7890\\5750\\6360\end{pmatrix}\).
Answer
1) After one week: \(A: 8800\), \(B: 5800\), \(C: 5400\).
2) After two weeks: \(A: 7890\), \(B: 5750\), \(C: 6360\).